Possible scenario
Managed Starlink Compromise
40% Chance
Ukraine, SpaceX, the European Commission, and likely U.S. officials settle into a managed arrangement rather than a rupture. The 161 km/h threshold becomes a negotiated operating boundary with exemptions or technical procedures for specific Ukrainian missions.
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications +0.7%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- SPCX+2.0%
- VSAT+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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