Possible scenario
Recruitment Reset Holds
40% Chance
The most likely path is a pragmatic recruitment and retention package rather than a move toward conscription. The government protects the NATO 3.5% target while trying to repair understaffing through pay, housing, veterans' benefits and reserve incentives.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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