Possible scenario
Fiscal Politics Bite
20% Chance
Public reluctance to fight gives fiscal hawks and social-spending advocates more room to challenge the composition of the defence build-up. The 3.5% headline target survives, but the pace and allocation of spending become more politically contested.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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