Possible scenario
Tight Rules Persist
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the October 2026 work-rule expansion and earlier benefit reductions continue to reduce participation, especially among able-bodied adults without dependents. USDA and state agencies focus on compliance and recertification rather than reversing policy.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
- DG-0.9%
- KR-0.7%
- WMT-0.5%
- DLTR-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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