Possible scenario
Consumer Strain Widens
20% Chance
The SNAP decline coincides with weaker low-income consumption, higher delinquencies and rising food-bank demand. This would turn the enrollment drop from a social-policy story into a modest consumer-demand warning.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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