Possible scenario
GOP Stabilizes Late
18% Chance
Republicans narrow the generic-ballot gap through improved economic sentiment, stronger base turnout, and attacks on Democratic state tax and crime proposals. The State Navigate forecast proves too pessimistic for the GOP, and Democrats' gains are limited mainly to blue-leaning suburbs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.