Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Lands
45% Chance
State Navigate's projection proves directionally correct as low Trump approval, a Democratic generic-ballot lead, and suburban backlash translate into large state-legislative gains. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee concentrates spending in Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Kansas, while the Republican State Leadership Committee struggles to defend suburban districts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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