Possible scenario
Margins Stay Elevated
45% Chance
The most likely path is that diesel and gasoline cracks remain unusually high through October as Russian diesel restrictions, Chinese export curbs, and tight global refinery capacity persist. Shell's $42 per barrel margin becomes a sector benchmark rather than a one-off company surprise.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
- SHEL+3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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