Possible scenario
Winter Energy Bombardment
40% Chance
Russia follows the large deadly strike with repeated drone and missile waves against Ukraine's electricity grid. This is the most likely path because Moscow has already begun its winter energy campaign and has repeatedly targeted civilian infrastructure since 2022.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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