Possible scenario
Air Defense Surge
25% Chance
The scale and casualties of the attack accelerate Western commitments of interceptors, launchers, and radar systems. This path is plausible because the earlier Kyiv attack already produced a Patriot deal and the latest strike creates additional political pressure in Washington and Europe.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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