Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation
25% Chance
Riyadh responds with targeted military action against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in Yemen, potentially with U.S. intelligence support. This path is plausible because the rising death toll and attribution to Iranian intelligence create domestic and strategic pressure to reestablish deterrence.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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