Possible scenario
Managed Security Closure
40% Chance
Saudi authorities keep King Khalid International Airport partially or fully closed while air defenses, runway inspections, and counter-drone systems are reinforced. This is the most likely path because Riyadh can reduce civilian casualties without immediately widening the conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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