Possible scenario
Netanyahu Avoids New York
25% Chance
Netanyahu and Israeli security officials decide the political and legal optics of a New York visit are not worth the confrontation. Israel shifts meetings to Washington, Jerusalem, or video appearances while blaming Mamdani for politicizing the ICC warrant.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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