Federal Preemption Prevails

The most likely outcome is that the Trump administration, State Department, and federal courts make clear that New York City has no authority to execute the ICC warrant against Benjamin Netanyahu. Mamdani keeps the pledge politically alive, but NYPD is instructed not to interfere with a protected foreign leader on U.S. soil.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.