Possible scenario
Limited Pentagon Review
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a contained Pentagon inspector general or contracting-office review focused on documentation, recusals, and whether procurement rules were followed. Democrats gain an oversight process, but the Pentagon avoids a broad freeze on drone or AI-defense procurement.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- AVAV+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.