Possible scenario
Progress, Not Breakout
35% Chance
Tesla makes steady progress, but not enough to support ARK’s $20.4 trillion market-cap forecast in most institutional models. The stock reaction remains positive but contained because adoption, regulation, and margins still require proof.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- TSLA+2.0%
- LYFT-0.6%
- UBER-0.5%
- ROK-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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