Musk Doubles Down

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A less likely but plausible outcome is that Musk treats the defeats as an execution failure rather than a strategic mistake. He could respond by spending earlier, building proprietary campaign infrastructure, and attacking Republican consultants who handled the 2026 cycle.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals−0.3%
Technology+0.1%
Consumer Services−0.1%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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