Possible scenario
Growth Narrative Holds
27% Chance
Markets focus more on the IMF's higher growth forecast and the tangible earnings contribution from AI capex than on the correction warning. Investors view the risk language as prudent surveillance rather than a near-term sell signal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.