Possible scenario
Orderly AI Repricing
38% Chance
Investors treat the IMF warning as a valuation check rather than evidence of imminent systemic stress. The most likely path is a controlled rotation out of the most crowded AI infrastructure trades while broader equity and credit markets remain functional.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.1%
- Telecommunications -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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