Possible scenario
Allies Restore Support
35% Chance
Washington and key NATO states move to contain the political fallout from Zelensky's warning claim by restoring or expanding real-time missile-alert sharing. The most likely near-term response is an emergency air-defense and intelligence package rather than direct NATO intervention.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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