Possible scenario
Grid Attrition Continues
30% Chance
Russia continues its campaign against generation and substations, but Ukraine avoids a nationwide grid failure through repairs, imports, and rationing. This is the baseline war-of-attrition path: economically damaging for Ukraine, but not a systemic global market shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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