Possible scenario
Reform Political Boost
20% Chance
Farage and Reform UK use the prosecution to reinforce a narrative of establishment failure, personal risk, and political persecution. The electoral impact could be meaningful if public sympathy converts into polling gains, especially after Reform's earlier surge on immigration.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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