Possible scenario
Contained Criminal Case
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Joshua Kerry's case remains a contained counterterrorism prosecution focused on the alleged targeting of Nigel Farage. Police and prosecutors continue treating it as serious, but no operational network or broader plot is publicly established.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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