Possible scenario
GOP Holds SC01
48% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Conservative Leadership Fund's late TV spending helps stabilize the Republican nominee in a district that remains favorable to Donald Trump and the GOP after the upheld South Carolina map. LaCore's prior polling lead and the district's partisan lean make a Republican hold the baseline case.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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