Possible scenario
Legislature Pursues Removal
20% Chance
If Caldwell refuses to leave and the ethics findings are viewed as serious, Democratic legislative leaders may begin a removal process to protect the Sherrill administration. This is less likely than a negotiated exit because impeachment is slow and politically costly, but it becomes plausible if Caldwell digs in.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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