Possible scenario
Outage Persists Locally
33% Chance
The pipeline closure continues for several days as negotiations stall, keeping roughly 200,000 bpd offline from one of Libya's largest fields. The disruption is material for Libyan exports but still small relative to global oil supply, limiting cross-asset spillovers.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Tickers
- TTE-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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