Possible scenario
Disruption Spreads West
15% Chance
The armed group action becomes part of a broader contest over western Libyan oil infrastructure, affecting shipments tied to the Zawiya route or nearby fields. This would create a larger short-term supply risk premium, though still below the threshold of a systemic geopolitical crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Tickers
- TTE-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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