• 

  45%−0.2%

  Contained Protest Strike

  The most likely path is a coordinated but bounded action focused on military shipments tied to Israel, with unions avoiding a full shutdown of civilian trade. Port authorities and national governments tolerate limited work stoppages while negotiating humanitarian carve-outs and cargo-screening protocols.

  Industrials −0.5% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.2%

• 

  25%−1.1%

  Broader Port Disruption

  The strike broadens beyond military shipments as sympathetic unions refuse to cross picket lines or handle cargo from flagged carriers. Congestion rises at key hubs such as LA-Long Beach, Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges, Piraeus, and Valencia, creating short-term supply-chain stress.

  Industrials −2.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.3% · Non-Energy Materials −0.7%

• 

  20%+0.1%

  Government Intervention

  Governments move to limit economic damage through injunctions, emergency port orders, or military-cargo routing through secured terminals. The response fragments the strike and reduces the probability of a sustained logistics shock, but raises legal and political tensions with unions.

  Consumer Services +0.3% · Industrials +0.2% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%

• 

  10%−0.7%

  Policy Escalation

  The strike accelerates political debate over arms transit and dual-use cargo to Israel, especially after the UN panel’s genocide finding and Spain’s prior arms halt. This is less likely in the immediate window but would create a stronger defense-policy and logistics signal than a labor action alone.

  Industrials −1.5% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.