Possible scenario
Deterrence Tensions Rise
20% Chance
Iran and allied groups frame the hub as a Western military-industrial foothold near the Gulf. The base case is rhetoric and diplomatic friction, but the recent history of Iranian attacks leaves a smaller risk of a security incident.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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