Possible scenario
Administration Presses Ahead
30% Chance
The Trump administration treats the NPS warning as nonbinding and continues moving the project through federal review channels. The White House is likely to frame the arch as central to the U.S. 250th anniversary program and resist local attempts to delay it.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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