Scenario description
Assume the EU, an EU-backed vehicle, or a coordinated group of EU governments begins issuing or committing a new Ukraine loan or guarantee facility that is explicitly backed, collateralized, serviced, or repaid using revenues, cash flows, or legal claims connected to frozen Russian state-linked assets held in Europe. The assumed initiating change is the operational launch or binding commitment of the asset-backed loan or guarantee, not a general promise to support Kyiv. The exact principal amount, maturities, asset pool, custodian participation, and risk-sharing terms remain as reported if not specified.