Scenario description
Assume EU governments or EU institutions formally approve and begin implementing a material mechanism that uses frozen Russian state-linked assets held in Europe to finance Ukraine’s state budget, military needs, reconstruction, reparations, or external-financing requirements. The mechanism may convert, seize, lend against, collateralize, or otherwise leverage those assets through an EU-level or coordinated EU-backed structure. Known amounts, participating custodians, repayment waterfalls, exemptions, and disbursement schedules remain as reported; political support, legal recommendations, or monthly coordination meetings alone are not part of this assumed shock unless an operational financing channel starts.