Possible scenario
New York Protests Grow
20% Chance
The man’s medical condition keeps the story politically salient in New York, especially after prior protests. Local officials and advocacy groups are likely to call for more transparency around ICE operations in the city.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.