Possible scenario
Temporary Export Limits
25% Chance
Trump could force a compromise short of a full ban: temporary licensing, quantitative limits, or destination-specific restrictions. This would be politically visible but less disruptive than a nationwide prohibition.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- VLO-4.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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