Possible scenario
Full Emergency Ban
15% Chance
A full ban remains less likely because it would anger refiners, Gulf Coast states, and trade partners, but Trump’s renewed statement keeps the tail risk alive. If enacted, it would be a direct shock to U.S. refining margins and international diesel supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.5%
- Industrials +0.9%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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