Possible scenario
Underground Network Expands
25% Chance
The death-penalty threat backfires by increasing foreign support for covert connectivity inside Iran. Smugglers, diaspora groups, and US-linked channels move terminals more carefully, shifting from visible protest use to smaller encrypted cells.
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX+1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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