Possible scenario
Crackdown Deters Users
40% Chance
Iran uses the death-penalty threat mainly as a deterrent, pairing prosecutions with device seizures and televised warnings. The most likely near-term outcome is a sharp reduction in visible Starlink use by protesters, journalists, and activists rather than immediate mass executions.
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX-1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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