Possible scenario
Recount Fight Emerges
18% Chance
Heavy late spending produces an extremely close race rather than a clear winner. Legal fights over provisionals, absentee ballots, and county-level canvassing extend uncertainty into late November or December.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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