Possible scenario
Osborn Upsets Ricketts
28% Chance
Osborn's independent profile, anti-establishment messaging, and labor support overcome Ricketts' cash advantage. The result would be a major Republican failure in a state Donald Trump carried comfortably and could alter Senate-control math.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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