Possible scenario
Federal Preemption Holds
35% Chance
Kalshi continues to persuade federal courts that its CFTC-regulated event contracts are not state-regulated gambling products. This outcome is plausible because Kalshi already won a key ruling against the CFTC in April 2026 and can argue that state gambling bans conflict with federal derivatives oversight.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
- DKNG-1.9%
- FLUT-1.5%
- HOOD+1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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