Possible scenario
CFTC Defines Boundary
25% Chance
The CFTC moves ahead with its September 2026 proposal to classify event contracts as swaps and impose clearer federal standards. This would not necessarily kill Kalshi's model, but it would determine whether sports and election contracts can scale nationally.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
- FLUT+1.0%
- DKNG+0.9%
- CME+0.6%
- HOOD-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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