Scenario description
Assume EU member states politically agree by 2027-03-31 on a framework for the 2028-2034 EU budget that breaks the dispute without adopting the large net-contributor cuts or major reallocations away from agriculture and cohesion-style poorer-region funding. The initiating event is an official EU-level or rotating-presidency announcement that member states have accepted a compromise for the roughly €2 trillion budget plan, with any aggregate reduction materially below the reported Irish roughly €140 billion proposal and with agriculture and cohesion-style regional funds broadly protected from material aggregate cuts relative to the Commission plan. Final legal text, European Parliament consent, exact national contributions, rebates and program-by-program envelopes may remain unavailable.