Scenario description
Assume EU member states politically agree by 2027-03-31 on a framework for the 2028-2034 EU budget that materially reduces or reallocates the Commission’s roughly €2 trillion plan. The initiating event is an official EU-level or rotating-presidency announcement that member states have accepted a compromise after the current dispute, with an aggregate cut around or above the reported Irish proposal of roughly €140 billion, a similarly large stated percentage reduction, or a clearly material shift of funds toward priorities such as defense, innovation, migration or industrial competitiveness while constraining agriculture, cohesion-style poorer-region funding or other legacy allocations. Final legal text, European Parliament consent, exact national contributions, rebates and program-by-program envelopes may remain unavailable.