Possible scenario
New Enforcement Deal
20% Chance
Washington uses the caravan to push Mexico for another enforcement package, similar to earlier coordination that reduced crossings. Mexico is likely to cooperate selectively to avoid trade conflict while preserving domestic political space.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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