Possible scenario
Mexico Contains Caravan
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Migración and National Guard slow or disperse the caravan before it reaches the U.S. border. This fits the post-2023 pattern of U.S.-Mexico coordination and the 2025 Trump-era pressure on Mexico to keep crossings low.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.