Possible scenario
Hoax Quickly Contained
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the evacuation proves to be precautionary after police find no viable explosive device. Given Brazil's recent history of political violence and coup-plot investigations, authorities still raise security around Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro through the runoff.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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