Possible scenario
Unrest Escalates
18% Chance
The bomb scare becomes a catalyst for street mobilization, online disinformation, and clashes between rival groups. Authorities can probably keep the runoff on schedule, but the probability of sporadic violence rises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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