Possible scenario
Courts Narrow Penalties
35% Chance
A state or federal judge intervenes quickly because daily fines against children raise due-process, religious-liberty, and proportionality questions. New York is likely to preserve quarantine authority but may have to modify how penalties are assessed against Amish families.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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