Possible scenario
Regulators Escalate Enforcement
30% Chance
New York regulators and prosecutors use the Cornell markets as evidence that Polymarket failed to police harmful or illegal event contracts. The existing New York lawsuit becomes a broader test of whether prediction markets can list contracts involving private individuals, criminal cases, or reputational harms.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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