Possible scenario
Rejection Remains Symbolic
45% Chance
North Korea's refusal is most likely a familiar bargaining and propaganda move rather than a decisive break. Pyongyang can reject direct South Korean aid while leaving room for indirect humanitarian channels through the UN, China, or private intermediaries.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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